Thank you for taking the time to read the State Tournament Predictions Report. This is my eighth year (at least) doing this in some way, shape, or form. Rankings will go 16-deep this year, which is the same as last year. In addition a listing of the top five wrestlers per district will be provided below the rankings. The team standing is based on a state scoring formula that projects points for where each wrestler is ranked (the number to the right of the team/district is the number of ranked wrestlers).

Accuracy in terms of predicting champs:
2004- DI 8/14, DII 10/14, DIIII 10/14
2005- DI 9/14, DII 9/14, DIII 3(or4)/14
2006- DI 10/14, DII 9/14, DIII 7(or8)/14
2007- DI 10/14, DII 8/14, DIII 9/14
2008- DI 9/14, DII 8/14, DIII 9/14
2009- DI 12/14, DII 9/14, DIII 9/14
2010- DI 9/14, DII 10/14, DIII 10(or11)/14

Where were the other champs ranked? (note this may not be perfect):
2nd- 51, 3rd- 23, 4th- 10, 5th- 7, 6th- 2, 7th- 2, 8th- 2, 9th- 1, >10- 3
Please note that this report is a reflection of the information acquired based on wrestling through the weekend ending January 22nd for Divisions I and II (primarily), and the weekend ending January 29th for Division III. There are two more weekends of wrestling left in this regular season. Also, remember that come the state series, it is a new season. The rankings and summaries carry the value of understanding where one person sees things at this point in time, and also an entertainment factor. However, as the writer of this report, I feel it is important to state: (1) there are matches to be wrestled for a reason (2) it is the upsets, the unexpected, and the thrillers that define state series wrestling (3) if I was somewhat perfect, there would be a different line of employment for me (i.e. psychic or bookie).

These are two predictions that I guarantee to be correct:
*The state tournament will be staged at Value City Arena on the campus of Ohio State University March 3rd through 5th.
*42 wrestlers will be crowned as champions, 14 weight classes across 3 divisions.

All others … there are no guarantees. As the TMQ column on Page2 of ESPN.com states, “All predictions guaranteed to be wrong or your money back!” (just kidding)

Best of luck on the remainder of the season, hope you all achieve the levels of success you wish for, and enjoy the reading!

Winning percentage at state by district tournament, 2008-2010

Division I
All Northeast (now Mentor)
2010: 103-110, 48.4% (overall); 48-53, 47.5% (championship only)
2009: 141-99, 58.8%; 75-51, 59.5%
2008: 131-103, 56.0%; 69-52, 57.0%

Combined Northeast (2)/Northwest (2) <now Lorain>
2010: 130-93, 58.3% (overall); 86-48, 64.2% (championship oly)
2009: 113-102, 52.6%; 48-52, 48%
2008: 113-100, 53.1%; 72-51, 58.5%

Note – The 2011 configuration for the combined Northeast/Northwest is the same as it was last year, but different than it was in the previous three years. As was the case in 2006, the Medina sectional is joining the Lorain Southview sectional in going to the combined district – instead of either the Willoughby South (was at Maple Hts and Garfield Hts in this stretch as well) or North Royalton (was also at Midpark in this stretch) sectional.

Fairfield (3 Cincinnati/1 Dayton)
2010: 79-108, 42.2% (overall); 36.8% (championship only)
2009: 92-106, 46.5%; 52-52, 50%
2008: 79-106, 42.7%; 33-53, 38.4%

Hilliard Darby (3 Columbus/1 Dayton)
2010: 110-109, 50.2% (overall); 44-54, 44.9% (championship only)
2009: 74-113, 39.6%; 35-55, 38.9%
2008: 99-113, 46.7%; 36-54, 40.0%

Division II
Akron Firestone (all northeast)
2010: 118-99, 54.4% (overall); 50-52, 49.0% (championship only)
2009: 110-103, 51.6%; 63-53, 54.6%
2008: 125-106, 54.1%; 61-53, 53.5%

Combined Central (2)/East (2) <now Columbus East>
2010: 73-116, 38.6% (overall); 32-56, 36.4% (championship only)
2009: 95-107, 47.0%; 45-54, 45.5%
2008: 81-112, 42.0%; 37-55, 40.2%

Goshen (3 Southwest/1 Southeast)
2010: 107-93, 53.5% (overall); 67-49, 57.8% (championship only)
2009: 103-100, 50.7% (overall); 57-49, 53.8%
2008: 110-101, 52.1%; 52-52, 50.0%

Marion Harding (Northwest 3/Northeast 1)
2010: 120-112, 51.7% (overall); 59-53, 52.7% (championship only)
2009: 112-110, 50.5%; 45-54, 45.5%
2008: 104-99, 51.2%; 60-50, 54.5%

Division III
Garfield Hts (all northeast)
2010: 117-98, 54.4% (overall); 68-52, 56.7% (championship only)
2009: 144-102, 58.5%; 61-55, 52.6%
2008: 105-107, 49.5%; 47-53, 47.0%

Combined Central (2)/East (1)/Southeast (1) <now Coshocton>
2010: 96-113, 45.9% (overall); 35-56, 38.5% (championship only)
2009: 80-113, 41.5%; 40-56, 41.7%
2008: 117-101, 53.7%; 60-54, 52.6%

Kettering Fairmont (2 Southwest/2 Northwest)*
2010: 112-102, 52.3% (overall); 55-51, 51.9% (championship only)
2009: 106-102, 51.0%; 56-49, 53.3%
2008: 116-111, 51.1%; 57-51, 52.8%
*it was 3 Southwest/1 Northwest prior to 2010

Owens College (all northwest)
2010: 94-106, 47.0% (overall); 52-51, 50.5% (championship only)
2009: 90-103, 46.6%; 53-50, 51.5%
2008: 82-101, 44.8%; 46-52, 46.9%

Wrestlers going two-and-out by district, 2008-2010
(percentage is those going two-and-out divided by total state qualifiers)

Division I
2010 2009 2008 PCT
Mentor 13 7 8 16.7%
Lorain 8 11 12 18.5%
Hilliard Darby 16 19 17 31.0%
Fairfield 19 19 19 33.9%

Note: Mentor reflects the all northeast district, while Lorain reflects the combined northeast/northwest district over that stretch of time.

Division II
2010 2009 2008 PCT
Firestone 11 14 12 22.0%
Marion Harding 9 9 16 20.2%
Columbus East 23 17 13 31.5%
Goshen 13 16 15 26.2%

Division III
2010 2009 2008 PCT
Maple Hts 9 9 13 18.5%
Kettering Fairmont 12 10 11 19.6%
Coshocton 16 19 9 26.2%
Owens College 19 18 23 35.7%